Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets | NBER
We compare Kalshi with more traditional survey and market-implied forecasts, examine how expectations respond to macroeconomic and financial news, and how policy signals are interpreted …
Kalshi Prediction Markets Match or Beat Traditional ...
1 day ago · Kalshi Prediction Markets Match or Beat Traditional Forecasting Tools For Macro Indicators, NBER Study Finds (nber.org) 9 Posted by msmash on Monday February 09, 2026 @08:45PM from …
This paper is the first to present systematic evidence on prices in the Kalshi market and also provides a theoretical model based on Kalshi’s market microstructure to explain our findings.
Kalshi Prediction Markets Match or Beat Traditional ...
11 hours ago · Kalshi's modal forecast accurately predicted the federal funds rate before every FOMC meeting since 2022. The prediction market showed statistically better inflation forecasts compared to …
Kalshi maintains a ‘perfect forecast record’ in predicting ...
Jan 28, 2026 · Kalshi allows traders to see how decisions track daily, or even by the minute, providing agility that tops the six-week frequency of the New York Fed’s survey of primary dealers.
Study finds Kalshi prediction markets as reliable as Wall ...
Jan 28, 2026 · Kalshi, the prediction site known for turning headlines into tradable bets, is now being taken seriously by economists. A new study shows that Kalshi’s forecasts on Fed interest rates and …
Kalshi Claims ‘Extortion,’ Then Recants in Prediction Markets ...
5 days ago · Kalshi Inc., the biggest US prediction market, told Bloomberg the analysis wasn’t just wrong. It was part of an “extortion” plot by the startup behind the data. The founder of Juice Reel, the...