Kalshi Prediction Markets Match or Beat Traditional ...
1 day ago · Kalshi Prediction Markets Match or Beat Traditional Forecasting Tools For Macro Indicators, NBER Study Finds (nber.org) 23 Posted by msmash on Monday February 09, 2026 @08:45PM from …
Abstract Starting in 2021, Kalshi was the first federally licensed prediction market in the United States and remains the dominant platform in this segment. Using transaction-level data on over 300,000 …
Kalshi maintains a ‘perfect forecast record’ in predicting ...
Jan 28, 2026 · The National Bureau of Economic Research study found the prediction site showed “statistically significant improvement” over the Fed funds futures forecast.
Prediction Markets and the Economics of Belief
4 days ago · This ability to trade in and out of positions makes prediction markets far more like financial markets than traditional betting. Prediction markets have existed in various forms for decades, from …
Study finds Kalshi prediction markets as reliable as Wall ...
Jan 28, 2026 · Kalshi, the prediction site known for turning headlines into tradable bets, is now being taken seriously by economists. A new study shows that Kalshi’s forecasts on Fed interest rates and …
Kalshi Prediction Markets Match or Beat Traditional ...
23 hours ago · The prediction market showed statistically better inflation forecasts compared to Bloomberg consensus. Kalshi additionally offers real-time probability distributions for key economic …
Kalshi Prediction Markets Match or Beat Traditional ...
Kalshi Prediction Markets Match or Beat Traditional Forecasting Tools For Macro Indicators, NBER Study Finds: A new NBER working paper from researchers at the Federal Reserve, Northwestern's ...